Os passivos contingentes e seus efeitos na condução da política fiscal do Brasil (1994-2002)

Abstract

This work analyzes the effect of the contingent liabilities and the quasi-fiscal deficits in the conduction of the fiscal politics and the consequences for the public debt. Firstly, we discussed: the concepts of contingent liabilities and the quasi-fiscal deficits; the methodology used for measure those obligations; and the hidden risks they present for the fiscal stability. Later, we intended to show the effect of those obligations on the fiscal stability of the government, bringing for the discussion the contingent liabilities quantified by the National Treasury. We also demonstrated the impact of the quasi-fiscal operations of the Central Bank of Brazil on the Brazilian public debt. We discussed also the theoretical point of view of the fiscal politics implemented in the national scenery, between 1994 and 2002. Finally, to reach the aim of the research, we verified if the fiscal politics is maintainable and the Brazilian public debt is solvent, through some hypotheses elaborated with different sceneries